The USD/MYR exchange rate has crashed in the past few years, making the Malaysian ringgit one of the best-performing currencies in the market. It tanked from a high of 4.7987 in April 2024 to a low of 3.8840. It rebounded on Wednesday as traders waited for the upcoming Malaysian interest rate decision.
Malaysian Interest Rate Decision and NFP Data
The USD/MYR pair will be in the spotlight in the coming days as market participants react to the upcoming Malaysian central bank decision and US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.
Malaysia’s Central Bank will likely leave interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting. The bank is in no hurry to cut or hike interest rates because of the recent macro data.
The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 1.6% in January, unchanged from the previous month. Inflation has jumped from a low of 1.1% in June 2025. Still, it remains substantially lower than where it was a few years ago.
At the same time, Malaysia has one of the lowest inflation rate. The unemployment rate remained at 2.9% in December, down from 3.1% in January last year.
Another report showed that the Malaysian economy rose by 6.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. This growth was the biggest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2022, helped by the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors.
The next key catalyst for the USD/MYR pair will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, which will come out on Friday. Economists expect the upcoming report will show that the economy created 70k jobs in February after adding 110k in January. That report will provide more information on what to expect from the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
USD/MYR Technical Analysis
The weekly timeframe chart shows that the USD/MYR exchange rate has slumped in the past few years, moving from a high of 4.7987 in 2p24 to the current 3.9380. This retreat started when it formed a triple-top pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.
The pair bottomed at 3.8840 and then rebounded to 3.9380. It has remained below all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index has moved from the oversold level of 17 to the current 30.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downward trend in the coming weeks, potentially to the year-to-date low of 3.8840. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at 3.50.