The US dollar continues to show strength against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as the USD is attracting in inflows overall.
Potential signal
I am a buyer of this pair now.
I have a stop loss at the 0.7750 level, with a small position that I am holding for the time being.
This is an interest rate differential set up.
The US dollar continues to show strength against the Swiss franc in what can only be thought of as a potential turnaround. If this pair does in fact end up turning around for the longer term, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out because quite frankly, the Swiss franc is considered to be a safety currency while the US dollar is as well, but it's probably worth noting that at this juncture, the US dollar is getting a bit of a boost maybe due to the fact that we have to worry about the war in the Middle East and what that does for energy in the European continent.
That does make this a little bit different, but you should also keep in mind that the Swiss have been very vocal about their displeasure of an extraordinarily strong Swiss franc, and we are still watching to see whether or not the Swiss National Bank will do something. I don't think they will if we start drifting higher, but if we get a sudden spike on the downside, I think you could probably count on it.
Interest Rate Differential and Long-Term Outlook
Ultimately this is a buy on the dip market from what I see unless of course we break down below 0.76 and then we reset again. The interest rate differential continues to favor this US dollar over the Swiss franc and I think that's part of what's going on here as well.
The 200-day EMA currently sits just above the psychologically and crucially important 0.80 level so I will be watching that if we do make that move, but I think it's going to be more of a grind and less of an impulsive move so do not be surprised at all if we see a bit of a slow creep higher more than anything else. Sudden moves probably will be driven by the random headline, but over the longer term, this is a market that I think is in the process of trying to find the absolute bottom.
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