My previous EUR/USD signal last Monday was not triggered as the price did not rebound off the support level at $1.1672 until the close of the London session.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be entered before 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1617, $1.1662, $1.1672.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1551, $1.1543, or $1.1525.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
In my previous EUR/USD analysis last Monday, I thought that the EUR/USD currency pair would probably only offer two realistic opportunities that day after the earlier very strong drop over the Asian session:
A long from a bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $1.1672.
A short from a bullish retracement which fails at the resistance level of $1.1760. I would prefer this setup to the long one.
As it happened, neither option set up that day.
The technical picture is looking more bearish, due mostly to effects of the war between the USA/Israel and Iran.
Qatar closed down its LNG production due to Iranian strikes on its major facility, and this has pushed up the price of LNG in Europe and this in turn will have hit the Euro. On the other side of this currency pair, the US Dollar has been stronger since the war broke out less than a week ago. Two days ago, the price briefly made a new 3-month low before recovering, with a powerful bullish pin bar rejecting the cluster of support levels which really begins at $1.1550.
The price is falling in line with the dominant trend and heading lower to this $1.1550 area.
A bullish double bottom here might not have a lot of follow through, but it looks like the next good trade that is likely to set up here. If the trade sets up within a couple of hours of the New York open, I will see an even stronger case for entering it. Also, if it rejects more than one support level at the same time, that should increase the chance of a profitable trade there.
There is nothing scheduled today concerning the Euro. Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data at 3pm London time.
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