Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 68,000.
Add a stop-loss at 76,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 76,000.
Add a stop-loss at 68,000.
Bitcoin price rebounded and surged to the highest point in over a month as traders embraced a risk-on sentiment. The BTC/USD pair jumped to a high of 74,000, up sharply from the year-to-date low of 60,000.
Bitcoin jumped as market participants reacted to a report that Iran had reached out to the United States for talks to end the ongoing war. That report also led to higher stock market, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rising by over 240 and 300 points, respectively.
Bitcoin jumped as the futures open interest soared, a sign that demand is rising. The open interest soared to $50.4 billion, its highest level since February 2nd. It has soared by over $7 billion from the previous day.
Similarly, spot Bitcoin ETFs are having substantial inflows. SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have had inflows in the last three consecutive days, bringing the cumulative inflows to over $55.4 billion. All spot ETFs have accumulated over $87 in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT having over $52 billion in assets.
Still, Bitcoin faces some major risks ahead. For example, there is a risk the war in Iran will continue for a while as the US, Iran, and Israel are committed to continuing the fight, which may lead to higher crude oil prices for longer.
Additionally, there is a risk that the ongoing Bitcoin recovery is part of a dead-cat bounce, a situation where an asset bounces back briefly and then resumes the downward trend. These bounces have happened several times in the past few months.
The next important catalyst for the BTC/USD will come out on Friday when the US releases the latest jobs numbers. These numbers will provide more information on whether the US economy is doing well or not.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Bitcoin price has remained in a narrow range in the past few months. This consolidation ended on Wednesday when it staged a strong comeback and moved to $74,000 for the first time in over a month.
The BTC/USD pair has moved above the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is slowly approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising and is nearing the overbought level.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it retreats and returns to the recent range as investors book profits. More gains will be confirmed if the pair rises above the key resistance level at 75,000.