Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 62,500.
Add a stop-loss at 71,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 71,000.
Add a stop-loss at 62,500.
Bitcoin price was stuck in a tight range today, March 4, continuing a consolidation phase that started last month. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 68,155, down substantially from the all-time high of 126,300.
Bitcoin’s price action coincided with the ongoing performance of the broader financial market. Top US indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices dropped by over 0.50%. Similarly, US bond yields continued soaring, with the 10-year and 30-year rising to 4.08% and 4.70%, respectively.
Bitcoin consolidated as the US dollar continued rising. The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped to $99.40, its highest level in months. Also, crude oil and natural gas prices continued its strong uptrend, with Brent soaring to $85.
The rising energy and shipping prices will likely lead to stickier inflation in the United States and other countries. As a result, there is a risk that the Federal Reserve, even under Kevin Warsh, will maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Bitcoin has stalled as investors have moved to other safe-haven assets, with gold emerging as one of the top ones. Gold continued rising and is hovering near its all-time high.
On the positive side, Bitcoin ETFs have been relatively resilient in the past few days. They added over $458 million on Monday and have had inflows in the last two weeks, bringing the cumulative inflow figure to over $55 billion.
Bitcoin will next react mildly to the upcoming US jobs data, which will provide more clarity on the state of the American economy. A report by ADP is expected to show that US private sector added 50k jobs in February. Another one by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show that the economy added over 70k jobs.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has remained in a narrow range in the last 30 days. It trades at the bottom of the trading range of the Murrey Math Lines tool. Also, Bitcoin dropped below the 50-day moving average and the Major S/R pivot point.
The BTC/USD pair has moved below the Ichimoku cloud indicator. It has formed a bearish pennant pattern, suggesting that a big retreat is possible. The initial target of this will be the Strong, Pivot, Reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines at 62,500. A drop below that price will push it to the psychological level at 60,000.