Bullish view
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7145.
Add a stop-loss at 0.6945.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6945.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7145.
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose slightly to 0.7030 on Monday as traders watched the ongoing war in Iran, soaring crude oil prices, and the upcoming consumer inflation report. It has jumped from this month's low of 0.6945.
US Inflation Report and Key Australian Macro Data
The AUD/USD exchange held relatively steady as investors reacted to the ongoing war in Iran, which has pushed crude oil and natural gas prices up by over 50% this year. Gasoline prices in the US have continued rising this year.
Energy prices may continue rising this week as the war continues and targeting of oil infrastructure accelerates. The surge will lead to higher inflation in the United States and Australia.
Therefore, the upcoming US consumer inflation report will have no major impact on the pair as investors focus on the impact of the war. Economists expect the upcoming data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to come in at 2.5% from January’s 2.5%. The core consumer inflation is expected to come in at 2.5%.
This inflation report will come a few days after the US released the latest non-farm payrolls data. The report showed that the economy lost 92,000 jobs as the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%.
The other key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair will be the upcoming Australian consumer confidence and building permits numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the consumer confidence dropped by 2.6% in March as inflation remained at an elevated level. Australia’s building permits are expected to jump by 1.1%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the AUD/USD pair held steady at the key resistance level at 0.7030. It has risen from this month's low of 0.6945.
The pair has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Ichimoku cloud indicator. It has jumped above the Supertrend indicator.
The pair has formed a bullish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a channel.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the upper side of the channel at 0.7142. A drop below the key support level at 0.6945 will invalidate the bullish outlook.