My previous AUD/USD signal on 10th March was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6874, $0.6930, or $0.6954.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6834, $0.6806, or $0.6744.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast three weeks ago, I was looking for long trade if we had gotten two successive hourly candlesticks closing above $0.7150 before the New York close, without either showing large upper wick, and with the second closing higher than the first.
This did set up late but would only have been a breakeven trade.
Ever since then, the price has been descending – and for several weeks now, it has mostly been contained within a symmetrical bearish price channel, shown within the price chart below as a linear regression analysis of recent price action.
This suggests continuing bearishness, but there are signs that there will soon be a bullish breakout above the channel, which could lead to a pop higher. This is probably due to the eagerly seized-upon story that the Americans are not going to try to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, I see this as wishful thinking, so although the price might pop higher, when people realise that Trump is serious about a military operation on Iranian soil, the price will come flying down again.
The pivotal point for a pop higher is likely to be $0.6874 later today when the upper trend line of the linear regression analysis becomes confluent with it.
This can be traded as a fast breakout on a short time frame, but the trade probably will not last very long so profits will likely need to be taken quickly.
If that level holds, especially in a confluent situation, it could alternatively be a nice short trade for the width of the channel down.
(image31032026audusd)
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm London time.
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