- The US dollar has rallied a little during the trading session here on Thursday as we are getting ready for the core PCE price index numbers coming out of the United States on Friday, which is the major, probably the favorite way of the Federal Reserve to measure inflation in the United States.
So, what I'm hoping for here is some type of move to the upside that I can start fading. This is a carry trade pair, and I think we have established that there is a significant resistance barrier close to the 17.50 level.
The 50-day EMA sits just above there and I think that it will offer a nice shorting opportunity if we get anywhere near it. The problem of course is the pair is more of a grinding pair so we may not even get that opportunity; we may have to fade from areas near here.
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Technical Resistance and Economic Outlook
The 17-level underneath is a major support level based on psychology and previous trading. And then after that you have the 16.5 level. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market - I believe it is probably only a matter of time before we break down a bit as the US economy strengthening and still doing very well will help the Mexican economy and therefore people throw money at Mexico.
That has been the historical game here and with that being said I do think that will continue to be how this is traded. If we rally and exhaust, then I'm a seller.
If we can break above the 18 Mexican peso level, something we won't do anytime soon, then I think at that point in time the trend will change and you start to buy the US dollar. My suspicion at that point is that you have a very huge risk-off type of market that you're dealing with in multiple assets, not just this one.
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