- The New Zealand dollar has rallied slightly against the Swiss franc during trading on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of choppy rangebound trading in this market.
- At this point, I think it is worth noting that we are hanging around below the 200-day EMA and the 200-day EMA sits at the 0.47 region, an area that has been significant resistance and a significant ceiling as of late.
The 0.46 level is a significant psychological floor at the moment and with that being the case, I think as long as we can stay above there, we are likely to continue to be a bit of sideways action just waiting to happen. Short-term rangebound traders will probably continue to love this pair, but keep in mind that the sharp drop that we have seen earlier this week was because of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on February 18 where they held the official cash rate as expected.
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Reserve Bank Policy Shifts
New Governor Anna Brennman stated that inflation is falling faster than anticipated and that policy will remain accommodative for some time. This crushed market expectations for a rate hike in late 2026, pushing the first expected rate hike out to 2027. Keep in mind that on the other side of the market you have the Swiss franc which is considered to be a safe haven currency.
I think at this point you are looking at a market that is probably going to remain somewhat sideways with more of a downward bias. Rallies are probably to be sold into at this point unless something drastically changes. Keep in mind that risk appetite has a major influence on this market and if we were to turn around and break above the 200-day EMA, that could change the outlook.
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