Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2082.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1795.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit 1.1795.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2080.
The EUR/USD pair held steady on Wednesday morning as investors reacted to key US data and statements from some Federal Reserve officials. It was trading at 1.1895, up substantially from this week's low of 1.1770.
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US Jobs and Inflation Data Ahead
The EUR/USD pair has remained above the key resistance level at 1.1800 after a report by the New York Federal Reserve showed that delinquency rates on loans like credit cards and mortgage rates jumped to 4.8%, the highest level since 2017. This surge has been driven by higher default rates among low-income young borrowers.
Meanwhile, a report by the United States will show that the country’s retail sales was flat in December from the previous 0.6%. They also retreated from 3.3% to 2.4% on a YoY basis. More data showed that the country’s export prices rose to 3.1%, while the import prices remained flat.
The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, which will come out on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the economy added 70k jobs in December after adding another 50k in the previous month.
The US will also release the upcoming US consumer inflation report. Economists see the upcoming number showing that the headline and core inflation continued falling in January.
Still, some Federal Reserve officials warned that interest rates may remain unchanged for a while even if inflation continues falling. Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed and Lorie Logan of Dallas confirmed this view. The two Fed officials have maintained their hawkish in the past few months.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate has held steady in the past few months and is hovering near the year-to-date high of 1.2082.
It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also rebounded above the key support level at 1.1782, its highest level in December. That is a sign that it has formed a break-and-retest pattern, a common bullish continuation sign.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced above the key support at 50. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the year-to-date high of 1.2082. On the other hand, a drop below the key support level at 1.1798 will invalidate the bullish outlook.