Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 71,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 71,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure on Thursday as investors remained on the sidelines and as end divergence with the stock market gained steam. The BTC/USD pair retreated below 68,000, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 126,300.
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The BTC/USD pair dropped even as the stock market continued its strong upward trend, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high. This retreat happened after the United States published strong jobs numbers.
A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the economy added over 130,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate retreated to 4.3%. However, analysts warned that the strong report may be revised down as the BLS has done in the past.
For example, revisions to last year’s jobs data showed that the economy added an average of 15,000 a month, lower than the initially reported average of 49,000 jobs.
Bitcoin price also retreated as the futures open interest continued falling. It dropped to $45 billion, down sharply from last year’s high of over $95 billion, a sign that demand has weakened recently.
The BTC/USD pair retreated after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned about the unsustainable fiscal path. It is estimated that the deficit would jump by $4.7 trillion in the next ten years. One cause of this jump is the surge in immigration policy, which will cost over $500 billion. Trump’s tariffs will increase revenue by $3 trillion.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC/USD pair continued its strong downward trend, falling from a high of 126,300 in October to the current 67,665. It has continued falling even as whales continue buying.
Bitcoin remains below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. The MACD indicator has moved below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 30.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the BTC/USD pair will continue falling as sellers target the key support level at 60,000. On the other hand, a move above the key resistance level at 72,000 will invalidate the bearish outlook and point to more gains.
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