Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7200.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6950.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6950.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.7200.
The AUD/USD exchange rate held steady near the year-to-date high of 0.7155 after key macro data from Australia and the United States. It was trading at 0.7085 on Monday as focus shifted to the upcoming US consumer confidence and Australia jobs report.
Australia Jobs and US Consumer Confidence Report
The AUD/USD pair has soared by over 20% from its lowest level in 2025. It rose last week after a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, better than the median estimate of 4.2%. This happened as the economy added 17.5k jobs in January.
The next key catalyst for the Australian dollar will be the upcoming Australian consumer inflation report. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped slightly from 3.8% in December to 3.7% in January.
Australia’s trimmed mean inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%, while the weighted mean inflation eased from 3.6% to 3.5%. These numbers will mean that inflation remains at an elevated level, meaning that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)may decide to hike interest rates in the coming meetings.
The AUD/USD pair also reacted to the upcoming US consumer confidence report, scheduled on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the upcoming report to show that confidence dropped from 86 in December to 84.5 in December.
The US will also release the latest house price index report, while several Federal Reserve officials, like Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, and Christopher Waller, will talk.
Additionally, the pair will react to the new global tariffs announced by Donald Trump after the Supreme Court ended the previous ones. The US will charge all countries a minimum 15% tariff rate using a different statute than the emergency one.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate held steady amid the divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It was trading at 0.7090, a few points below the year-to-date high of 0.7155.
The pair has remained above the important resistance level at 0.6945, its highest point in September last year. It has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the Supertrend indicator.
It has moved to the Strong, Pivot, and Reverse of the Murrey Math Lines tool. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the year-to-date high of 0.7155. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at 0.7200.