Short-term rallies continue to see downward pressure against the USD versus the South African Rand at the moment, something I don’t think will change soon.
The US dollar has fallen against the South African rand against a backdrop of US dollar weakness around the world. This is not a huge surprise because not only do we have an interest rate differential that favors South Africa, but South Africa is highly tied to certain minerals, such as gold, for example.
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This is a market that has been very bullish, so it has its influence on the South African rand as we are now testing the 16.3 level. Ultimately, I do think we go much lower, and short-term rallies will offer selling opportunities as you get paid at the end of every day to be short of this pair.
While the US dollar has found its footing against multiple other currencies from time to time, the one place that it has been fairly weak has been against exotics. I think exotics at this point continues to be a place where you have to put serious thought into trading, even if you are not used to doing so, mainly due to the market offering such a strong and steady drive lower.
Selling at the First Signs of Exhaustion
I don't have any interest in trying to get too cute here. I think as long as we stay below the 16.50 level, it is a selling opportunity at the first signs of exhaustion. Even if we did break above 16.50, then I would start to look at the 50-day EMA, currently at the 16.73 level, as an opportunity to start shorting as well.
This is a market that has been very negative for some time, and I just don't see how that changes anytime soon. The carry trade is very much alive.
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