- The US dollar has dropped significantly against the Norwegian krone on Thursday, as we continue to see risk aversion drive many markets.
That being said, the US dollar had been slipping against this currency for a while, and ultimately, I think you have to just assume that market participants just went back to what it was they were doing previously, now that things have settled down.
It is worth noting that the interest rate differential does favor Norway, however slight as it is only 25 basis points, but that is one thing that helps. Crude oil is starting to get a little bit of a bid, which could come into the picture also.
But ultimately, I believe a lot of what we are seeing in Norway is driven by rapid domestic price growth, and that means that Norway’s inflation may drive the central bank to tighten a little bit. Its inflation is above the central bank’s stated target, and with that being the case, this is one of those outlier currencies that may have to see interest rates rise. Another one that I can think of off the top of my head would be the Australian dollar, and you can see it is starting to strengthen.
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Key Technical Levels
From a technical analysis standpoint, the 9.75 level is an area that makes sense as support, as it was a major swing low. But if we break there, we could see this pair drop all the way to 8.50.
Rallies at this point in time would have to be looked at with suspicion, but I also recognize that there does come a point where things change. I don’t think they change dramatically until we can break above the 10.20 level, which would have the market break above the 200-day EMA. So, as things stand right now, much like the US dollar against some of the more exotic currencies, I think this is a pair that continues to drift lower.
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