- The USD/JPY pair currently looks as if it is trying to find a floor in the market, near the crucial 200-day EMA.
The US dollar continues its attempt to stabilize against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we have seen a lot of noise in this general vicinity. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to look at the 200-day EMA just below as a potential floor in the market, which is currently sitting at the 152 yen level. As long as we stay above that area, I do think you start to talk about the possibility of the market turning things around. If and when it does, then I think a move back toward the 50-day EMA makes quite a bit of sense.
There were some grumblings about the Bank of Japan intervening and that wouldn’t be a huge surprise. But at this juncture, I also recognize that market participants are looking at this as a market that pays interest at the end of the day and a lot of people will continue to try to take advantage of the carry trade if in fact it is available to them.
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Market Volatility and Support Levels
With this, I believe the volatility that we are seeing during the trading session is just a function of market participants trying to fight back. I do think that the US dollar is oversold, and I believe this is a potential bottom just waiting to happen. I also recognize that there are a lot of questions about the US dollar at the moment, so I don’t think this is something that you want to get extraordinarily aggressive on.
Rather, treat it more or less as a part of your diversified portfolio that pays your dividends occasionally or in this case daily and just helps pad returns for the year. The Japanese yen is not a currency I want to own, and the US dollar is oversold. You probably get more traction using a different currency against the yen, maybe such as the Australian dollar, but the market certainly looks like one that I think is setting up for some consolidation and a bigger move. All we have to do is wait to see which direction.
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