Summary
- The US dollar pulled back on Monday as we continue to see a bit of consolidation.
US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
The US dollar did initially rally against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday, but has since fallen in what has been a little bit of lackluster performance by the dollar, more than anything else.
When you look at the technical analysis, this is a market that has been consolidating after a big move to the upside, and the recent pullback of the last couple of weeks makes sense because, at this juncture, it appears to me very obvious that the 158 level is an area that you are going to have to watch closely.
If we can break above 158, then there is a world where we start to see a lot of upward activity. At that juncture, I'm looking at a move to the 160 yen level pretty quickly. That being said, we did pull back during the trading session on Monday, and I think this just reiterates the idea of consolidation between the 158 level on the top and the 154.50 yen level on the bottom.
Interest Rate Differential and Carry Trade Dynamics
The fundamentals for this pair are driven by the carry trade, the interest rate differential, as per usual, as the Federal Reserve currently has a policy between 3.5% and 3.75% after a rate cut in December. Markets expect maybe one more cut in the first quarter, but the rate remains relatively high in comparison to Japan, which only has a 0.75% rate after a hike.
This is a 30-year high. Even with the BOJ hiking and the Federal Reserve cutting, the gap is still roughly 3%. So, investors will more likely than not continue to sell the yen to buy the dollar and pick up the differential. That being said, the US dollar has struggled a bit, so this may not be the first place traders are looking to short the yen by another currency.
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That being said, the Bank of Japan is still suggesting that it will raise rates if inflation targets are met. We'll have to see. The slow and gradual rate hike situation in Tokyo is disappointing for those who are hoping for the yen to recover. The Federal Reserve is easing, but the US economy remains extraordinarily resilient, possibly even boosted by new fiscal spending and government bills mentioned in recent forecasts, preventing a dollar sell-off en masse.
We are getting pretty close to the 160 yen level, relatively speaking. In that scenario, the Japanese have, of course, defended. Geopolitics could drive money back into the yen as well. But all things being equal, I look at this as a bullish but cautious situation. The primary trend is up, fueled by the interest rate differential, but you also probably have somewhat limited upside at 160 yen.
The Bank of Japan has a meeting January 23. Any surprise hike could break this trend, but we'll just have to see where this is. I remain more buy-on-the-dip here in a short-term back-and-forth type of environment.
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