The USD/INR as of this writing is hovering slightly above 90.0600, this after the currency pair has shown an ability to climb down from highs seen on the 17th of December when the 91.4250 mark was challenged.
You can be forgiven for believing the USD/INR has no coincidental movement. The USD/INR is above the 90.0000 mark as December concludes and the New Year’s holiday approaches. The USD/INR was near the 89.5000 ratio on the 1st of December. The slow incremental crawl upwards in the Indian Rupee as it loses value to the USD has been a long-term trend.
Last year around this time the USD/INR was near the 85.6500 mark. The Reserve Bank of India has a lot to do with the value of the Indian Rupee and its does not condone speculative wagers by people inside of India as a side hobby. The USD/INR is watched closely by the Indian government and its value is a direct reaction to financial and fiscal concerns the leadership holds dear. The move higher in the USD/INR continues to stimulate export for India.
Move Above 90.0000 and Fanfare
It certainly was not coincidence the USD/INR started to show stronger hints of sustaining values above 90.0000 on the 10th of December. Although the U.S Federal Reserve cut its interest rate and other major currencies gained against the USD in the aftermath, the USD/INR instead started to signal an ability to move higher. In a one week time span after the FOMC Statement in the U.S, the USD/INR was touching its high for December around the 91.4250 ratio and disdain was heard from some corners inside of India.
Volatility is part of the USD/INR too. Sudden gyrations have been seen in the past two weeks in which velocity downwards has occurred. The moves have not been polite. On the 17th and 19th of December surges lower were seen. When compared numerically to percentage changes in other currencies paired against the USD however, the moves by the INR back to within site of the 90.0000 were actually well-behaved, but speculators working via VPNs inside of India and afar in places like the U.A.E might have gotten hit by the selling of the USD/INR. And maybe that was the intention of the Reserve Bank of India.
January and the 90.0000 Support Level
As the New Year begins and regular volumes come into the Forex marketplace next week, the USD/INR and the 90.0000 should be watched.
- The noise heard from many when the USD/INR was pulverized and sustained on the 10th of December has not been forgotten, but it has been accepted it appears.
- Meaning the Reserve Bank of India from a behavioral sentiment viewpoint may be quite comfortable keeping the USD/INR above the 90.0000 in the coming weeks and perhaps incrementally letting it move slightly higher.
- Speculators should remember that the Reserve Bank of India likely had a hand in the selling surges seen on the 17th and 19 of December, the central bank likely wants you to know they can hurt you if you speculate against them.
- However, the USD/INR move higher looks like it will continue, the historical long-term chart can be used as a touchstone.
- Yes, perhaps it will not work, maybe the USD/INR will suddenly reverse lower and maintain a strong pace – but that is very doubtful.
USD/INR Outlook for January 2026
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 89.7000 to 91.3500
The price movement in the USD/INR remains intriguing from a speculative standpoint for traders with deep pockets, patience and the ability to make mid-term bets. Day traders will not find speculative paradise with the USD/INR because intraday moves are dangerous and the potential of sudden random selling spurts by the Reserve Bank of India remain a constant threat.
Yet, the move higher has a definite trend and very likely an influential power behind the trajectory of the USD/INR to new highs. Having touched the 91.0000 mark and higher in December, looking for the value to appear in January seems like a solid rationale.