The USD/ILS is trading near the 3.15600 ratio as of this writing with a wide spread being demonstrated, but also a rather consistent incremental bearish trend sustaining trajectory.
The Iran saga is clearly a global concern. Israel finds itself as always a center of attention due to its proximity to Iran, and potential ramifications if military actions by the U.S creates retaliatory strikes from Iran into Israel. The USD/ILS however continues to remain calm. Israel has been through a myriad of loud events the past few years, and the Israeli Shekel has shown an ability to get stronger.
The USD/ILS is trading near the 3.15600 mark as of this writing. The lows being traversed in the USD/ILS are within realms that last saw sustained action in January of 2022. This means technical traders need to look at 5 year charts to understand the USD/ILS has traded lower before. And considering the growing tension caused by the developing Iranian situation, some traders may think this is the time to bet against the Israeli Shekel, but they could be proven wrong in an expensive manner.
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Roads Taken Before and Bearish Momentum
Day traders who are tempted to look for upside action in the USD/ILS and who have no experience in the currency pair need to be careful. Israel has been down this road before regarding potential conflicts with Iran, and the USD/ILS has in fact been rather solid. Yes, upwards buying pressure can certainly develop if Israel were to be pulled into a conflict with Iran in the near-term that lingers, but it might only be temporary.
Meaning speculators would have to be not only correct about their predictions and outlooks, but be lucky enough to capture volatility and cash out of the USD/ILS before it reverses. The USD/ILS has been sustaining prices below the 3.18000 mark the past week, this while the Iran situation has grown in noise. Israeli and international financial institutions dealing with the USD/ILS have been quite calm.
Wagering on War and the USD/ILS
Betting on the USD/ILS could prove to be very volatile certainly today and tomorrow. However, traders without experience in the currency pair need to remember financial institutions in Israel shut early on Friday.
- Meaning that trading today could see some large traders start to positions themselves before the onset of their weekends.
- And the fact that the USD/ILS has shown a rather steady approach to loud conflicts before should also serve as notice that looking for ‘easy’ momentum upwards in the currency pair may be proven wrong.
- The ability of the USD/ILS to track lower the past few days and actually sustain its lower terrain shows that financial institutions are calm about the current value and may continue to lean into more downside.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 3.15615
Current Support: 3.15575
High Target: 3.17700
Low Target: 3.1490
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