- The New Zealand dollar rallied to kick off the Friday session, but has found a significant amount of trouble above the 50-day EMA as traders continue to put downward pressure on this pair.
- That does make sense considering that the central bank has signaled that it may have to keep rates really low or possibly even cut.
- That makes it a bit of an outlier in the sense that most central banks are doing everything they can to at least stay somewhat stable, while New Zealand struggles.
This could send the New Zealand dollar down to 0.57, and if we break down below there, it opens up a move of about another 75 pips by my estimation. Short-term rallies will continue to face hesitancy near the 0.58 level and, of course, the 200-day EMA, which sits just above there.
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Stubbornly Strong US Dollar
With this being the case, I believe that you have a market that sooner or later will have to come to terms with the idea of whether or not it’s the US dollar or the New Zealand dollar that’s driving things. As things stand right now, not only is the New Zealand dollar itself weak, but the US dollar is stubbornly strong. So, if that’s going to be the case, this is one of my favorite setups.
From a technical analysis standpoint, we have tested the 200-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level only to fail. But I would point out, some people might be drawing falling wedges right now.
So, if we break to the upside, I think technical traders will be looking to the 0.5850 level again, which isn’t unheard of to test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level twice, but in that environment, it would almost certainly be driven by overall US dollar weakness.
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