Potential signal
- I am ok with buying here, with a stop loss at 1.1820, and a target of 1.22 above.
The euro continues to see a bit of noise, but I think we still have a destination above that we will find our way towards.
EUR/USD
The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session here on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in general. The US dollar has been oversold for a while, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we got a little bit of a push higher in the US dollar.
When you look at this chart, it is worth noting that the 1.1850 level is going to offer support due to the fact that it was significant resistance previously. The breakout and the retest is a very common technical pattern that a lot of people watch, and if you use the measured move, you would anticipate that the market could go to the 1.23 level above.
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Technical Support and Resistance

If we were to break down below the 1.18 level underneath, then we are going to test the 50-day EMA, possibly even the 1.16 level. The Euro is backed by the European Central Bank which is more likely than not going to remain flat for the time being, while the Federal Reserve may cut rates down the road.
There is a lot of nonsense out there about political risk and things like that, but the reality is if you look at the US dollar index, it is basically in the middle of the range that it has been in since roughly 1980. So, I wouldn't make that big of a deal about that. Ultimately though, this is a market that I think for the short term will eventually see a buying opportunity on a bounce, but I think probably above 1.23 the Euro will seem a little stretched.
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