- The Euro has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session here on Thursday, which makes perfect sense considering that we have been drifting lower since the New Year.
- We also have the Non-Farm Payroll announcement coming out on Friday, and that will be a major influence on what happens next with the US dollar.
With that, we are just hanging around in a range which I think loosely is defined by 1.18 on the top and 1.15 on the bottom, perhaps extending all the way down to 1.14. Even if we were to break above the 1.18 level, I think there is about 50 pips or so above that that is going to be very difficult to overcome, also.
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Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy
The anticipated announcement is for the United States to have a 4.5% unemployment rate and an addition of 66,000 jobs. The stronger the number of jobs added, the more likely it is that the US dollar will pick up strength because people are still trying to bet on how many times the Federal Reserve will cut.
Let's be honest here, the markets are trying to force the Fed to cut much more than I think the data suggests that they should, and this is part of the push and pull that we have seen. In this environment, it looks a lot like a market that is going to continue to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior.
I do think that we probably have plenty of support below, and I believe that the Euro is just going to drift back and forth over the next several weeks. All things being equal, a lot of this comes down to whether or not the US dollar is going to strengthen.
I don't think it has much to do with the Euro, mainly due to the fact that the European Central Bank is presently flat with its monetary policy, and it has its inflation numbers about where it wants to be. So really, the only central bank here in play is the Fed, and the next few data points could swing this pair perhaps 75 to maybe 100 pips in one direction or the other, but I don't see a big move here.
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