- The Euro has rallied slightly on Thursday as the market continues to look to test the top of the overall range at the moment.
The Euro has rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of consolidation just above the 50-day EMA. The question at this point in time is whether or not the US dollar will crumble, and I think there is a specific trigger price that you will more likely than not have to pay attention to.
This would be the 1.1850 level. The recent swing high and the spot on the chart that I have circled from the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision. That was when we started to get the idea that perhaps the Americans were not going to aggressively cut as everybody had anticipated.
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If we can break above there, that would be a very strong sign, but as things stand right now, this is more or less a market that is stuck in a range between 1.14 and 1.1850. I do think that you are looking for signs of exhaustion to start fading again.
Market Range and Sentiment
But if we get that move above 1.1850, then the Euro is likely to go looking to the 1.20 level after that. All things being equal, this is a market that moves very little most of the time, so the fact that it is range-bound should not be a huge surprise.
That being said, also, you could also look at this as a very well-defined range that you can play in both directions. It is worth noting that the most recent dip doesn't seem to have been as negative as previous ones, so maybe we're starting to lean more in the direction of the Euro. But we'll just have to wait and see.
A lot of this will come down to US economic data, which recently has been a little softer than previously but still fairly resilient.
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