- The Euro fell again as we continue to see quite a bit of negative pressure near the 1.18 level.
- The 1.18 level is an area that I think will continue to be a bit of a ceiling in this market, extending all the way to the 1.1875 level.
If we could break above the 1.1875 level, then it would be a very bullish sign for the Euro. While I'm not necessarily super bullish on the Euro itself, I can make an argument about how that would happen. Currently, traders around the world are anticipating that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to cut this year, and if that's going to be the case, they will likely try to punish the US dollar.
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That being said, it should also be thought that if we do in fact see aggressive cuts, that's not a good look for the world economy. After all, loose money does help, but if it's a bit of a panic, that will have people quite concerned and often will have them running to the US dollar for safety. Ultimately, I think we are still range-bound and I don't really see anything pushing the Euro higher significantly at the moment, but I can also say that I don't see anything pushing it a lot lower at the moment either.
The 50-day EMA currently sits at the 1.1672 level and is rising, and I think that makes a nice target for any pullback. Anything below there opens up 1.16, possibly even 1.15, but I think ultimately, we've got a scenario where you're probably looking at choppy and back-and-forth range-bound trading on not only short-term charts but long-term charts. In other words, if you wait long enough, the market will move in your direction. It looks like a market that has nowhere to be.
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