Rallies at this point in time look to be selling opportunities, and I do not have any interest in trying to get too cute here.
The Euro fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise overall. This is indicative of a strengthening US dollar in general, which has continued to enjoy momentum with retail sales being so strong on Wednesday. That may have been part of what we have seen jump in the dollar's favor.
Furthermore, we have a lot of questions as to whether or not the ECB is going to be able to do anything soon with its monetary policy, and it does seem like it's going to be stagnant.
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At the same time, the Federal Reserve looks very much like a central bank that might be hesitant and stubborn about cutting rates. Therefore, it has a repricing effect on the Euro, specifically against the US dollar.
All things being equal, with a defensive flow dominating the markets, it would not surprise me at all to see the Euro go looking to the 1.15 level, where the 200-day EMA currently resides. Below that, we then have the 1.14 level.
Selling Opportunities
Rallies at this point in time look to be selling opportunities, and I do not have any interest in trying to get too cute here. I think it's really not until we break above the 1.1850 level that the uptrend would be confirmed.
As things stand right now, we are still very much in sideways consolidation despite the fact that the last couple of weeks have been ugly for the Euro.
Going all the way back to July of 2025, nothing's changed. This is a market that continues, I think to favor the US dollar quietly, but I don't know if things are going to get out of hand anytime soon.
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