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Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Get Squeezed Between EMAs

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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The crude oil market continues to be noisy, but there is an opportunity for short-term traders here.

WTI Crude Oil

The light sweet crude oil market has been somewhat noisy during the trading session here on Monday, but that’s not a huge surprise considering where we are. We are right in the middle between the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA indicators, which a lot of traders will look at as a decision-making area. Quite frankly, the supply and the demand equation still suggests that lower prices would be the more applicable way to look at this market, but there are geopolitical concerns and I think that's part of what's been driving the crude oil market higher.

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The $62 level continues to be an area that a lot of people will be watching for potential resistance.

The $62 level continues to be an area that a lot of people will be watching for potential resistance, right along with that 200-day EMA which is at $62.45, and therefore I think we do have a bit of a barrier that's going to be difficult to overcome. In fact, we did try to rally towards the $62 level early on Monday, only to fail.

That doesn't necessarily mean that I expect this market to break down—quite the contrary. I believe that this market is going to continue to see a lot of noise between these two moving averages for the short term. If we were to break down below the $59 level, then we probably revisit the $55 level, but I think there's more money to be made in more back and forth sideways action on shorter timeframes right now.

This is particularly built and suitable for those who trade something along the lines of a 10 or 15-minute chart in the futures market or even in the CFD market. Eventually, we will break out of this range between the two moving averages and once we do, then a little bit of clarity will be seen. With this, I think you've got a scenario where short-term traders are going to thrive.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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