As things stand right now, we are at a major point of inflection that traders will be watching closely in the crude oil markets.
The crude oil market was somewhat quiet on Monday, which does make a certain amount of sense considering it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States and a certain amount of volume would have been missing. With this being said, I like the idea of waiting to see what happens on Tuesday, but as things stand right now, we are at a major point of inflection that traders will be watching closely.
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After all, there was a previous trendline that offered support, and now you also have to pay attention to the fact that the 50-day EMA is sitting right here as well. With all of that being said, I think you have a situation where traders will be watching the $60 level above, as it is a major psychologically important figure and an area where we have seen quite a bit of support and resistance in the past.
If we can break above this $60 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $62 level, maybe even the 200-day EMA, which sits just above there.
Rally Is Suspect
Any rally at this point in time, though, I think is suspect, as although oil prices have been depressed for a while and did bounce quite nicely, I think we're probably at best looking for a market to find a little bit of consolidation in this region. The market breaking above the 200-day EMA would, of course, be a very bullish sign, sending the market to the $66 level, but I don't see that happening right now.
I think you've got a situation where we are still trading the February contract, and that does make a certain amount of sense, considering that the demand for crude oil is typically a little bit sluggish in the middle of winter.
With this, I think there are some questions to ask about trade risk easing some of the supply concerns, but right now, I think we're just looking for some type of reason to go sideways and find a new range. Perhaps we will bounce around between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA for a while.
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