BTC/USD as of this writing is floundering above the 88,000.00 mark and has shown some downwards motion the past week that may look concerning to some of its backers.
Bitcoin is struggling. Some might say that this is bias from my side considering that it is still priced above 88,000 USD as of this writing. But the interesting and concerning thing (if I were a proponent of BTC) is that while speculative commodities like gold and silver have continued to plow ahead and make new apex highs, BTC/USD has actually met strong headwinds.
Yes, in the middle of January Bitcoin was near 98,000.00 USD. However, there is perhaps a fundamental reason for this that many observers are not considering. At that juncture there was a decision being waited upon concerning Strategy Inc. which was deciding the fate of the company’s inclusion (and possible exclusion) from a major fund. Strategy Inc. is a major holder of Bitcoin. When it became known Strategy was not going to be excluded from the MSCI fund, Bitcoin started to shoot higher on the 12 of January.
Likely Not Coincidence Regarding BTC/USD Price
However, when the fine print of the MSCI decision to not exclude Strategy was read, suddenly problems started to be seen in BTC/USD. It appears Strategy didn’t get a ‘full backing’ from the Morgan Stanley fund, in fact wording that could be described as red flags were written. Upon this news the flourishing BTC/USD started to sour in price and by the 20th of January was below 90,000 once again.
Since the 20th of January the downturn in BTC/USD has continued and the world’s most famous digital asset has fallen to nearly 88,000.00 as of this writing. As January concludes Bitcoin is showing some troubling signals and important questions need to be asked. Why isn’t BTC/USD rising as gold is making new record highs? If everyone is so scared of the USD fate as Bitcoin influencers have largely sung for a decade now, why isn’t Bitcoin and gold moving in the same direction? And why isn’t BTC/USD rising as USD centric weakness is pervading Forex?
A Look Ahead and Fear of Headwinds
If Bitcoin falls below 88,000.00 today or in the near-term as gold continues to do well, it will be a clear sign speculators are looking elsewhere for quick profits. Some influencers may say that could mean Bitcoin is no longer speculative and is seen as a steady asset that secures financial safety.
- As a reader you are allowed to judge for yourself, but I personally seriously doubt that claim. If Bitcoin continues to face headwinds in the coming week and falters below the 85,000.00 USD price, then this may be a sign some volatility downwards is going to happen.
- The Strategy Inc. share price is struggling, the company may not be able to buy Bitcoin as it has regularly done, which could be said to be a reason the price of BTC/USD has been propped up in the past.
Bitcoin Outlook for February 2026:
Speculative price range for BTC/USD is $69,000.00 to 94,000.00
Bitcoin is showing troubling signs for speculators who want to be buyers. Yes, the price of the digital asset can certainly go higher. And once again, perhaps BTC/USD will prove me wrong for the thousandth time and stun us all with a serene and positive move upwards that shows real velocity. However, if BTC/USD fails to gain over the next week and finds itself still facing headwinds in the middle of February, it may be time to suspect that the speculative crowd is looking elsewhere long-term.
BTC/USD above 90,000 looks to be a rich ground at this juncture and overpriced. Again, perhaps the much speculated digital asset will prove me wrong and show its power and surge. But perhaps it won’t, and maybe all the headwinds and inability to rise above critical resistance levels the past few months is a sign that a problematic bearish trajectory is about to happen.