Bitcoin initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday, but has been stymied by the macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines.
Bitcoin initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday but has since struggled. Quite frankly, this isn't a huge surprise considering that there are so many headlines flying around right now that are very risk-off in nature.
With that being said, I think you've got a situation where Bitcoin is going to be extraordinarily sensitive to macroeconomic headlines and geopolitics despite the fact that most of it actually has nothing to do with Bitcoin. The reality is that it's an institutional asset now, and it will behave like everything else on Wall Street. For example, a lot of the favorite stocks on Wall Street right now are a little bit soft, which has nothing to do with the stocks themselves and everything to do with perceived threats of tariffs and trade wars and the like.
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Trying to Find a Bottom
Ultimately, this is a market that has been in the process of trying to find a bottom, and that makes Bitcoin very interesting to me. The $84,000 level is a major area of support from what I can see, and I will continue to look at that as a floor. If the market were to break down below the $84,000 level, then it really starts to unwind, perhaps down to the $80,000 level.
The 50-day EMA currently sits at the $92,000 level, which is at the top of that ugly candlestick from Tuesday. If we can clear that, then it's likely that we could go looking to the $95,000 level, possibly even the 200-day EMA after that.
Longer term, I still believe that Bitcoin reaches $107,000 this year, but this is going to be a process, and therefore it is going to be very noisy. We need some type of good macroeconomic or geopolitical risk-on type of agreement between the Americans and the Europeans to perhaps turn things around and give Bitcoin a little bit of a lift. As things stand right now, it's going to struggle, but I do think it's in the process of forming an accumulation pattern or a bottom.
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