My previous AUD/USD signal on 30th December produced a nicely profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at $0.6661.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.25%
- Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6786 or $0.6806.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6716, $0.6704, or $0.6679.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast a little more than a week ago, I wrote that a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern looked likely to complete and drive the price down to a support level, where it could be bought.
This was an excellent call, as the price did drive lower that day, bouncing very precisely at the support level I had identified at $0.6661 and giving a great long trade entry signal.
The technical picture now is considerably more bullish, after the price has managed to start rising again after its recent consolidation, breaking above resistance levels to reach a new 1-year high price earlier today, before making a normal retracement. The advance above the round number $0.6700 is technically significant.
Lower than expected Australian inflation data released earlier today triggered a bout of buying, even though it does not make rate hikes any more likely.
I see a nice buying opportunity if the price comes back down to the nearest support level at $0.6716 and makes a bullish bounce, in line with the long-term bullish trend. I will not seek any short trade entries today.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time today, followed by JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Services PMI at 3pm.
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