Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6835.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6835.
The Australian dollar surged for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its highest level since September 2024 after the country released strong jobs numbers. The AUD/USD exchange rate rose to a high of 0.68000, up sharply from the year-to-date low of 0.6667.
Australia Jobs Growth Continued
The AUD/USD pair jumped after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published the latest jobs numbers. The report showed that the country added over 65.2k jobs in December, a big reversal after it shed 28k in the previous month. This figure was much higher than the median estimate of 30k.
Full-time jobs were 54k, while part-time were 10k, which is a good thing for the economy. Also, the unemployment slipped from 4.3% to 4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 66.7%.
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These numbers boosted the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might decide to hike interest rates by 0.25% in the coming meeting since inflation remains much higher than its target of 2%. A rate hike would be notable as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will deliver several rate cuts this year.
The AUD/USD pair also jumped as traders waited for key macro data from the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest US GDP and personal consumption expenditure data, which will provide more information about the economy.
Economists expect the data to show that the country’s economy expanded by 4.3% in the fourth quarter after growing by 3.8% in the previous quarter. Another report is expected to show that the personal consumption expenditure inflation eased a bit in November.
While these numbers are important, their impact on the US dollar will be limited because they are for the third quarter and November, respectively.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the AUD/USD pair continued its strong uptrend this week. It moved above the important resistance level at 0.6710, the highest swing since September last year, and the neckline of the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
It moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The pair’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) continued rising.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 0.6835, which is the ultimate resistance of the Murrey Math Lines tool. A move that support at 0.6710 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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