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AUD/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Continues for 3 Weeks

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked with...

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My previous AUD/USD signal on 7th January was not triggered.

AUD/USD Forex Signal 15/01: Consolidation Continues (Chart)

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6689, $0,6719, or $0.6726
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6661, $0.6634, or $0.6621.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

In my previous AUD/USD forecast a little more than one week ago, I wrote that as the technical picture had become more bullish, I saw a nice buying opportunity if the price came back down to the nearest support level at $0.6716.

The price did reach this level, but there was no bounce, so it was not an accurate or useful call.

Today, we see the past three weeks has basically been a flat consolidation within just about 100 pips, or maybe even less most of the time.

Although the consolidation is quite flat, it is clear there is a long-term bullish trend here, so a buy from a bullish bounce at a key support level will probably be the way to trade this currency pair.

The support at $0.6661 looks pivotal and strong.

If the price makes a sustained break below $0.6661, that will be a bearish sign, although not a very strong one.

A bullish breakout beyond $0.6760 would be a bullish sign and might be another event which could be used as a long trade entry trigger.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:15pm London time today, followed by JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Services PMI at 3pm.

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Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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