- This is a market that actually pays you to short the US dollar, so it's probably not a huge surprise.
- The US dollar continues to struggle against the South African rand on Monday as we see this market trying to get to the 16.50 level.
- This is a market that actually pays you to short the US dollar, so it's probably not a huge surprise, and at this point in time, it looks like any rally probably gets stepped on.
Short-term pullbacks could rise as far as 17, but that's a level that I think now is your ceiling. This is especially true now that the 50-day EMA is racing toward it as well, and therefore, technical traders will recognize it as important not only from a market memory standpoint but from that technical indicator.
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Commodity Tailwinds and the Carry Trade
When I look at the longer-term charts, the most obvious level that we could get down to is 16.15 if we continue to go lower. Quite frankly, you get paid to short this pair, and I think a lot of people are taking advantage of that carry trade as there is a boom in the commodity market. Of course, a lot of the hard commodities that are doing so well are coming out of South Africa, so it bodes well for the South Africans in general.
Ultimately, I do not want to buy this pair, and in fact, we would have to break all the way above the 17.50 level for me to even consider that.Keep in mind, though, we are getting to the end of the year, and liquidity will start to dry up, so that is going to be a little bit of a problem at times. Overall, I think this trend is pretty well-defined, and it's pretty obvious which direction you should be trading. Any rally that shows a bit of a wick on a candlestick I am more than willing to start selling again and get paid at the end of every day.
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