The USD/ILS is around the 3.18800 ratio as of this writing, this as financial institutions start to acknowledge the Christmas holiday is emerging and shut down their trading desks for the day.
The Israeli Shekel is traversing realms it has not traversed since the spring of 2022 in a sustained manner. The USD/ILS has been challenging the 3.2000 realm consistently the past few days and this morning has established what looks like an accepted value below around the 3.18800 mark. Except, current values must be looked upon skeptically by all traders and institutions because Christmas-eve trading is upon the landscape.
Trading volumes are entering a slow crawl and within a handful of hours will start to enter paralysis. Holiday markets will be shuttered during Christmas almost completely around the globe. Though trading will take place on Friday by some banks, speculators looking to participate in the USD/ILS before the weekend need to know most Israeli banks will mostly sit on the sidelines and take a quiet stance.
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The Fall of 3.20000 and Things to Come for the USD/ILS
Israel’s economy is doing rather well and the past handful of days has seen news of an Israeli-Egyptian gas deal, and also an announcement by Nvidia which is set to build data center infrastructure via a large investment. The Bank of Israel has acknowledged it may start to become more dovish regarding interest rate policy too. The 3.20000 level proving vulnerable and developing trading below is important and will be watched.
Some financial institutions may worry the Israeli Shekel is too strong. The USD/ILS trend lower over the long-term has been significant, and Israeli government policy may be forced to consider monetary policy decisions if the strength of the currency is deemed a negative influence on business export and citizens. However, the USD/ILS has seen these depths before and the government may remain comfortable regarding its current monetary stance as long as the USD/ILS remains above the 3.10000 level.
Near-Term Holiday Trading Notes
Trading in the USD/ILS will be extremely quiet over the next few hours. Yes, some changes in value will certainly be seen, but day traders who are participating need to be extremely careful so they are not hurt by sudden changes in value due to imbalances.
- Price quotes are likely to see large spreads and speculators without deep pockets may want to remain outside the gambling theatres until early next week.
- The lower value of the USD/ILS should be watched and there may be more opportunity to find lower movement.
- But again – importantly – price ratios displayed today and on Friday must be viewed suspiciously.
USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 3.18950
Current Support: 3.18350
High Target: 3.20100
Low Target: 3.17500
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