- The US dollar has fallen against the Swiss franc early during the trading session here on Tuesday, but it does look like there is going to continue to be a bit of a fight at the 0.79 level.
- If we can stay above this level, then I look at it as a potential buying opportunity, as it is the bottom of a well-defined range that we have been in for some time.
In fact, I would not be surprised at all to see this market bounce because I have this sneaking suspicion that the Swiss National Bank is probably sitting underneath there, supporting the market. They have been known to do that more than once in a very quiet way and then eventually make their intentions known.
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In fact, they have already said that they are watching the forex markets for erratic moves. That is essentially code for saying that we will intervene if the Swiss franc strengthens too much.
Market Outlook and Key Targets
Ultimately, though, I think a rally I think is somewhat limited, especially considering the time of year we are in as holiday liquidity will be a major issue.
But if we do rally, the 50-day EMA sits right at the 0.80 level, and that makes a certain amount of sense as a potential target, followed by the 0.8150 region.
Ultimately, I am bullish longer term, but we have some work to do to change the overall trend. We need some type of jump in risk appetite, or the Federal Reserve has to shock the market and be even more hesitant to cut rates. This is a nice range-bound play that I have been taking advantage of for several months now, and I plan on doing more of the same.
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