- NZD/USD is testing the 0.58 level, a long-standing pivot for support and resistance.
- Any failure here could invite renewed selling, especially with Fed messaging likely to favor US dollar strength after next week’s rate decision.
The New Zealand dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Thursday as we are sitting just below the 0.58 level. The 0.58 level is an area that has been both supporting and resistance multiple times, and now we find ourselves trying to get above there.
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If we can break above there, then the 200-day EMA is waiting to offer resistance. All things being equal, the market is going to continue to look a little stretched. And if we have any exhaustion appear in this area, I am going to start shorting the Kiwi dollar again. Quite frankly, the New Zealand dollar is going to be tied to international trade, and I don't think that's where you want to be anchoring your bets, or at least not yet.
Fed Expectations and Market Sentiment
A nice bounce makes sense considering it was so heavily shorted going into the latest round of trying to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Once the Federal Reserve cuts rates next Wednesday, it'll all be about the press conference and the statement, both of which will probably be pretty measured. And if that's the case, you'll see the US dollar strengthen again. Everybody is getting euphoric about all of this free candy on Wall Street, which seems to happen maybe every six weeks or so, and here we are again.
That being said, this is a market that is ripe for selling. I just need to see the right amount of exhaustion, and I would love to see that exhaustion at the 0.58 level so that I can short right at a major area of contention.
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