- The Nasdaq 100 continues grinding higher, but with unstable, conviction-less trading as rate-cut rumors and AI concerns dominate sentiment.
- Pullbacks toward support may occur, yet the broader uptrend persists with $26,000 as a longer-term target.
During the Friday session, we've seen the Nasdaq 100 really try to take off to the upside. It does look like it's struggling a little bit, a couple of hours into the session, but I think it's probably only a matter of time before we go higher. Ultimately, this is a market that I believe eventually tries to go looking to the $26,000 level, which, of course, is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to as it's a large round, psychologically significant figure. That being said, I also recognize that there are a lot of games being played right now due to the back-and-forth rumors of interest rate cuts, no interest rate cuts, and will the Federal Reserve cut enough?
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With a lot of the concerns about the AI bubble, I think the NASDAQ 100 will be very unstable on the way higher. That's exactly what we've seen over the last several days. And while Friday did really try to push things higher, so far, it's been very difficult, just like it was on Wednesday and Thursday. Quite frankly, it's almost as if nobody's in the market with any type of conviction. And if that's going to be the case, I think a pullback makes a lot of sense.
Support Structure and Market Behavior
The uptrend line and the 25,000 level come into the picture to offer support right along with the 50-day EMA. In general, this is a market that I do like longer term, but in the short term, you're going to have a lot of issues. I would not short this market. I have no interest. I think it's foolish to even attempt it, mainly because it's not even constructed to fall. With that, I think you have to look at this as a market that is going to be very noisy as it went in a nice, gentle, and easy uptrend most of the year, and now traders are trying to collect their profits.
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