Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall of Gold Trend: Still bullish.
- Today's Gold Support Points: $4160 – $4110 – $4070 per ounce
- Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4240 – $4280 – $4340 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $4280 with a target of $4060 and a stop-loss at $4330.
- Buy gold from the support level of $4145 with a target of $4300 and a stop-loss at $4110.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
The recovery in the US Dollar has temporarily halted the gains in the gold trading market. According to gold trading platforms, the gold index settled around the $4176 per ounce level, giving up the gains from the start of the trading week which touched the $4260 per ounce resistance. This recent pullback has not yet pushed the spot gold prices out of the ascending range. I anticipate gold trading will remain in narrow ranges, fluctuating between decline and rise, pending the market's reaction to the US Federal Reserve's announcement tomorrow, Wednesday.
Will gold prices rise today?
According to gold analysts' forecasts, the gold trajectory remains upward. However, gold prices have recently declined gradually, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank) meeting. The key element for the market will be the Dot Plot projections, which will determine the market response. A major shift is unlikely given the high levels of uncertainty following the longest US government shutdown, and with only one US interest rate cut expected next year. Meanwhile, the impending selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair could reshape expectations for 2026 and increase volatility related to inflation and interest rates.
Overall, US markets are pricing in a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve tomorrow. Investors are anticipating two or three more cuts next year, as recent data continues to point to a slowing labor market.
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Trading Advice:
Wait for a strong pullback in gold prices, then initiate purchases across several entry levels. Also, never take excessive risks and closely monitor market influence factors to predict future prices.
Gold Indicators Are Bullish
Based on the daily chart performance, the technical indicators still confirm bullish control over gold prices. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stabilizing around the 60 level, which supports the bulls, and there is still plenty of room for profit before reaching the overbought zone. Over the same time frame, the MACD indicator lines are in a neutral position with an upward bias. We should not forget that the price of gold has risen by $1558.00 per ounce, or $59.26\%$, since the beginning of 2025. A scenario for gold decline depends on a return to the vicinity of the psychological $4000 per ounce level.
Regarding the future of gold prices, the World Gold Council stated in a research note that the gold outlook for 2026 is likely to be determined by ongoing geo-economic uncertainty. The Council pointed to the impossibility of predicting unexpected events, such as Trump's tariffs on Liberation Day this year, adding that the pace of high-risk events is increasing. The Council believes that forces of declining economic growth, accommodative policies, and persistent geopolitical risks may support gold rather than weaken it.
In general, investors are likely to maintain some of their gold investments given the unpredictability of current geo-economic dynamics. The World Gold Council added: "In a world where shocks and surprises are increasingly the norm, gold's ability to provide diversification and protection against negative risks remains critically important."
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