Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1915.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1670.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1670.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1915.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its strong rally, reaching its highest level since September 24 as investors reacted to the strong US GDP data. It has risen significantly from its lowest point in November.
US GDP and Consumer Confidence Data
The EUR/USD exchange rate held steady as investors reacted to the latest US GDP data, which showed that the economy did well in the third quarter.
A report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy grew at the fastest rate in two years in the second quarter. The GDP report, which is adjusted for inflation, rose 4.3%, higher than the median estimate of 3.8%.
This growth was because of the strong consumer spending, which remained stronger than expected despite Donald Trump's tariffs in the US. It was also because of the ongoing data center spending, which has accelerated this year.
However, the US also published some weak numbers, especially on consumer confidence, which tumbled for the fifth consecutive month, the longest streak since 2008. Consumers are mostly concerned about inflation, which has remained at an elevated level in the past few months.
Worries about inflation will continue rising because of the upcoming expiration of Obamacare subsidies. There are also concerns about the labor market, where the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November as the economy added just 64,000 in November.
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More data showed that industrial and manufacturing production barely increased in October and November this year.
The EUR/USD pair will likely hold steady today as many European markets will be closed because it is Christmas Eve.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD pair held steady in the past few days, rising from a low of 1.1468 on November 5 to the current 1.1797.
It has jumped above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the key resistance level at 1.1673, the neckline of the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising in the past few days. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is bullish, with the next key resistance level to watch being the year-to-date high of 1.1915.
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