Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1850.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1850.
The EUR/USD pair wavered close to the weekly high as investors anticipated the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and the US inflation data. It was trading at 1.1737, a few points below this week’s high of 1.3800.
ECB Interest Rate Decision and US Inflation Data
The EUR/USD exchange rate pulled back as traders waited for the upcoming European Central Bank decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% as the economy remains resilient.
Recent economic data showed that the economy did better than the bank’s expectations. This growth was due to the ongoing growth of exporters who are navigating US tariffs more effectively than anticipated.
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The economy is also being boosted by the robust spending by Germany, the biggest country in the region. Most importantly, data released this week showed that the French economy was resilient despite recent budget issues.
At the same time, Europe’s inflation has moved close to the ECB’s target of 2.0, with analysts expecting it to remain steady in the coming months. Therefore, in addition to leaving rates unchanged, the bank will likely hike growth expectations.
At the same time, some analysts believe that the bank may even signal that it will hike interest rates slightly late next year, leading to a divergence with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep cutting rates.
The other key catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming US inflation data, which will come two days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest jobs data. Inflation is expected to start coming down now that crude oil price has move downwards a bit.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD pair pulled back to 1.1735, a few points below this week’s high of 1.1797.
The pullback is happening as investors wait for the upcoming European Central Bank decision. It remains above the 50-day moving average, while the Awesome Oscillator has moved above the zero line.
Therefore, the pair will likely resume rising as bulls target the next key psychological level at 1.1800. A move above that level will raise odds of it rising to the year-to-date high of 1.1915.
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