EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Neutral.
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1520 – 1.1470.
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 11.1680 – 1.1760 – 1.1820.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1555 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1490.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
As observed in recent currency price movements, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a clear ascending channel. The price recently pulled back from its highs near the psychological barrier of 1.1700 to test support at the channel's bottom. The EUR/USD price is currently stabilizing around 1.1653, suggesting the potential for another rally if the channel structure holds firm.
Simultaneously, Fibonacci extension levels applied to the recent movement show potential upward targets if the bullish trend resumes. The 0.00% level at 1.1628 represents the base of the current swing, while the 0.382 extension sits at 1.1678. Upward targets include the 0.5 extension at 1.1693, the 0.618 level at 1.1708, and the 0.764 extension at 1.1727. The ultimate target is the 1.0 extension around 1.1757 if the bullish momentum accelerates.
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The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is situated above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the current stronger path is upward, or that the rally is more likely to gain momentum rather than reverse. Both moving averages are sloping upward and lie below the current price action, indicating they may form dynamic support for any further pullbacks. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is rising from the oversold area, suggesting buyers are beginning to regain control after the recent correction. The oscillator has room to rise before reaching an overbought state, meaning bullish momentum may increase in the near term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning bullish from the lower half of its range, reflecting renewed buying interest. The oscillator has ample room to rise, suggesting that the EUR/USD pair may continue its upward trajectory if channel support holds and buyers remain committed to pushing prices towards the Fibonacci extension targets.
Factors Influencing the EUR/USD Pair
According to Forex currency trading experts, the EUR/USD pair may be affected by the upcoming FOMC statement, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates but may signal a more cautious outlook toward neutrality in 2026. Consequently, more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell could cause the US Dollar to rise, but it should also be noted that his term is nearing its end.
Prior to that, the Euro/Dollar will react today to the announcement of German Trade Balance figures at 09:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the more important release of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the JOLTS Job Openings reading at 17:00 PM Egypt time. Euro trading was already influenced by signals from European Central Bank officials, as ECB board member Schnabel stated that she was comfortable with market bets that the ECB's next move might be an interest rate hike, noting that the risks to both growth and inflation are now tilted to the upside. She also suggested that the updated economic projections in December might be revised higher.
Overall, her comments, coupled with the resilience of economic activity and inflation nearing the target level, reinforced expectations that the ECB would keep interest rates unchanged until 2026.
Trading Advice:
As predicted, the EUR/USD pair will remain within a narrow range with no clear direction until the market reacts to the US Federal Reserve's announcement tomorrow and any signals regarding its future policies until Powell's term ends. Be cautious and don't rush into anything.
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