EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1745 – 1.1680 – 1.1600.
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1830 – 1.1880 – 1.1930.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1690 with a target of 1.1820 and a stop-loss at 1.1600.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1830 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
The Euro is stabilizing against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) near the 1.1800 resistance as the final trading days of 2025 begin. This sets the stage for a strong performance heading into 2026. According to top-tier trading platforms, Euro trading has remained positive, fueled by market expectations regarding the future policies of the US Federal Reserve compared to those of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Amidst quiet holiday trading between Christmas and the New Year, the exchange rate settled near 1.1772. The US Dollar remains under pressure despite strong US growth data. Recently, financial markets have shifted their focus toward Federal Reserve policy outlooks and concerns over central bank independence, rather than short-term economic activity indicators.
With long positions on the euro increasing, the potential for further gains may depend on the emergence of new catalysts in early January.
Will the Euro's gains continue in the coming days?
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According to forex market trading, the euro (EUR) remained stable in global markets last week, while the dollar remained under pressure despite better-than-expected US GDP data. Consequently, the EUR/USD exchange rate reached its highest level in three months, approaching 1.1810, before settling slightly below 1.18.
Regarding factors influencing currency prices, any developments related to the incoming Federal Reserve Chair and other US central bank officials will be closely monitored. Looking ahead, MUFG Bank anticipates further limited net losses for the dollar in 2026 due to interest rate changes. They stated, "We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current monetary policy throughout 2026, justifying the EUR/USD exchange rate's rise in short-term yield movements, given that the Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at least three times, exceeding expectations."
After an initial stabilization, the bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to reach 1.24 by the end of 2026.
Trading Advice:
Traders advise caution when trading during periods of low market liquidity, a natural reaction to holidays in many financial markets.
2026 Trading Outlook:
According to currency trading experts, the US dollar is likely to remain vulnerable to volatility in global markets until the start of the new year. However, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows an increase in non-commercial long positions in the euro to nearly 145,000 contracts from 138,000 contracts previously, its highest level in two years. This concentration will increase the risk of a euro correction early next year. Very strong resistance is also likely for the EUR/USD pair on any move towards the psychological resistance level of 1.20.
On the Economic Front, US GDP data for the third quarter showed annualized growth of 4.3%, compared to 3.8% previously, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.3%. Consequently, financial markets are currently trading at a probability of less than 15% for another US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with two further cuts expected in 2026.
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