EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: : Within a technical correction upward.
- Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1710 – 1.1660 – 1.1580
- Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1790 – 1.1830 – 1.1900
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1640 with a target of 1.1850 and a stop-loss at 1.1580.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1810 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
For three consecutive trading sessions, the EUR/USD price has stabilized around its recent upward rebound gains, hovering near the resistance level of 1.1768—the highest for the pair in two months. Overall, based on performance across reliable trading platforms, the rise witnessed in the EUR/USD exchange rate this month indicates it is approaching overbought territory, making it a candidate for a correction amid profit-taking sales.
Technically: The rapid rise in the Euro price recently is pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward the 70 threshold, the level at which EUR/USD is officially considered overbought. The RSI tends to revert to the mean upon reaching this zone, implying an eventual decline. For this to occur, we need the EUR/USD price to enter a sideways path or a slight downward retreat.
In short, we believe Euro trading will see a slight dip after a strong rally; we would not be surprised to see a pullback below 1.17 this week before the next upward wave. However, charts can only offer limited information in a week marked by major economic data releases.
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Important and Influential Events for the EUR/USD
According to Forex market trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate will be affected by the Eurozone PMI results for December, expected today, Tuesday, starting at 10:15 AM Egypt time. These are expected to confirm continued positive momentum for the region's economy through the end of the year. Generally, the Eurozone Services PMI is expected to print at 53.3, while the manufacturing sector recovery is expected to confirm a slight rise to 49.9, placing it on the verge of returning to growth.
Overall, strong economic data would support the view that no further interest rate cuts are necessary from the European Central Bank. In fact, a better-than-expected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading would reinforce expectations of continued interest rate hikes.
However, the US Dollar's path will be the primary driver for EUR/USD during this trading week. The release of US labor market data is the standout event in global financial markets. Notably, this data was delayed by the US government shutdown, meaning it will fill a significant data gap. US November jobs data will be released today, Tuesday, at 15:30 Egypt time, with expectations pointing to an increase of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. If the numbers fall below expectations, the market will increase bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026, negatively affecting US bond yields and the Dollar price today.
Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, these expectations of an interest rate cut will diminish, and the US dollar may rise and potentially continue its gains for the remainder of the week, potentially hindering the euro's appreciation against the US dollar.
Furthermore, keep an eye on US Retail Sales data, also scheduled for release today at the same time, which will indicate the strength of demand in the economy. Expectations suggest a figure exceeding 0.2% monthly for October. On Thursday, US Inflation (CPI) data will be released, with expectations of a rise to 3.1% annually in November, compared to 3.0% previously.
Obvioulsy, this trend appears unsatisfactory for the Federal Reserve. Any figure higher than expected will cast doubt on market expectations for rate cuts next year, thereby supporting the US Dollar.
Trading Tips:
Today's trading session is crucial in determining the fate of the EUR/USD for the remainder of 2025 and will shape the start of the new year's trading. Be cautious, as we may witness strong and rapid changes in currency prices.
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