My previous BTC/USD signal last Monday was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $86,814, $85,369 or $81,203.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $87,947, $89,057, or $90,184.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
In my last BTC/USD forecast last Monday, I thought we were seeing a flat consolidation between $85,000 and $90,000 – but that as the short-term price action looked bullish, I was wary of taking a short from a normal rejection of $90,000.
I was correct by default that a failure at $90k was a short signal as I thought a decisive breakout above that level would be a good long trade entry. As it happened, there was an obvious failure once the price got there.
The technical picture has become more consolidative – while the major range between $85k and $90k has held, new support and resistance levels within this area have formed as volatility has continued to fall.
This is likely to make trading quite choppy and unpredictable, especially over the holiday period as liquidity dries up (crypto markets are always open).
I think the only trades worth taking would be short from a bearish reversal at $90,184 or long from a bullish reversal at $85,39 – in the latter case, if $85k is rejected at the same time, that would be an even stronger entry signal.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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