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BTC/USD Forecast: Waiting for FOMC to Determine a Floor

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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  • Bitcoin shows resiliency after early-session weakness, with traders watching the $93,000 level for a potential recovery.
  • Conflicting chart patterns and the upcoming FOMC decision add uncertainty, leaving the market cautiously optimistic as it searches for direction.

BTC/USD Forecast 10/12: Waiting for FOMC (Chart)

Bitcoin was initially negative during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned around to show signs of resiliency. At this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked of the $93,000 level, an area that I think, if we can break above, we could see a bit of a recovery. Bitcoin has been very noisy over the last couple of weeks. And this does suggest that there's at least the possibility of Bitcoin trying to recover after the massive selling that we had seen.

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Conflicting Technical Signals

On the other hand, when you look at the chart, you could make an argument for a potential bearish pennant right along with an ascending triangle. So, because of this, I think we need to be cautious, and we need to recognize that the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday, and perhaps more importantly, the press conference, will have a lot to do with what happens next in Bitcoin.

If the Federal Reserve seems extraordinarily dovish, then you have a real chance at Bitcoin making a big move higher. That being said, I don't necessarily expect it to be massively momentum driven. I think it's more of a grind to the upside because obviously, a lot of traders just got hurt. If we were to break down below the $80,000 level, then it's likely that we could see a significant breakdown that would, of course, be a very negative turn of events.

That being said, I think we are just simply trying to find our footing and turn things around, which is more or less a process. It's not very often that it becomes an instantaneous bounce. Because of this, I'm patiently optimistic, but we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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