- The euro traded around the 1.15 level on Monday, showing indecision as resistance held firm.
- I remain bearish, expecting potential declines toward 1.14 or even 1.11, with rallies likely to face resistance near the 50-day EMA around 1.1650.
The euro went back and forth during the course of the early hours of Monday as we are hanging around the 1.15 level. The 1.15 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has been both support and resistance previously. If we break down from there, then the market is likely to go looking at the 1.14 level.
The 1.14 level is an area that’s been important previously and an area where the 200-day EMA currently finds itself. With this being said, I think that being violated to the downside really opens up the downside for the euro, perhaps down to the 1.11 level and beyond. Short-term rallies, I look to sell, and I do believe that the 50-day EMA probably continues to be resistant with the 1.1650 level. Any jump at this point, I think, you just have to look at with suspicion.
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FOMC Not Clear
After all, the FOMC interest rate decision—and perhaps more importantly, the press conference—suggests that maybe the FOMC or the Federal Reserve won’t be cutting rates in December. We don’t know yet, but it’s not a given, and that really kind of stunned the market. It’s worth noting that this all started during the September FOMC press conference.
We have dropped pretty significantly since then, losing about 450 pips. All things being equal, short-term rallies, I think, continue to swim upstream. We had broken below the 50-day EMA, and it has offered significant resistance multiple times. And now that we are below that, I think we may eventually try to get to this 200-day EMA.
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