- Crude oil rallied early Friday but struggled to overcome resistance between $60 and $62.
- With volatility elevated, soft demand and key technical barriers continue to cap momentum, keeping the market locked in a choppy, short-term trading environment.
Crude oil rallied rather significantly during the early hours of Friday but continues to see a lot of noise just above the $60 level. The $60 level of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that would attract a certain amount of attention. That being said, we have seen quite a bit of back-and-forth action on Friday as volatility continues to pick up.
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It's worth noting that the 50-day EMA sits right at the $61 level, and that could offer a certain amount of downward pressure that could keep the market lower. Really at this point in time, the area that I'm watching the most is the $62 level, because there is about a $2 range from $62 down to the $60 level that had previously been support and now should be resistance based on market memory.
With this being the case, I think you've got a market that is primed to try to do everything it can to take off, but we'll just have to wait and see how that plays out. The market also has to keep in mind that demand is a little bit soft at the moment, and that is part of what's been overhanging the bullish sentiment. Recently, we had more sanctions put on the Russians. But, quite frankly, we've seen that movie before, and it always ends up with the Russians being able to send oil through various backdoor channels. So, I don't really think that's going to be an issue in the longer term.
As long as we're below the $62 level, I favor shorting rallies that show signs of exhaustion. However, if we can break above somewhere around $62.40, then you have to start looking to the upside. Regardless, this is a short-term trading environment and a very choppy market to say the least.
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