My previous BTC/USD signal on 10th November gave a very profitable short trade from the bearish reversal which rejected the key resistance level at $106,403.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $85,369 or $81,203.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $88,487 or $93,808.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Top Forex Brokers
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
In my last BTC/USD forecast exactly two weeks ago, I thought that we were likely to see a further rise with a bullish breakout beyond the resistance level at $106,403.
This was a bad call as exactly the opposite happened here: a failed bullish breakout and a quite immediate drop in the price that didn’t stop until towards the end of last week.
Luckily my advice on trading the breakout, should have kept anyone following out of a losing long trade.
Two weeks later, the technical picture in Bitcoin in particular, and in crypto in general, is much more bearish following the series of strong breakdowns which we have seen in recent days. The support at and just below the big round number at $100,000 has not held.
Despite these recent strong falls which saw Bitcoin shed one-third of its value within just a few weeks, we are starting to see a minor recovery that could get more serious:
- There may have been long-term buying at $81,203 which held very firmly as support.
- The price getting established above the new support level at $85,369 is a weakly bullish sign.
- If we now get a breakout beyond the nearest resistance level at $88,487 that would be a significant bullish development, but I think it is unlikely to happen.
Today I will look for a long trade if we get a bullish bounce at a test from above of the support level at $85,369, but don’t be slow to move the trade to break even or to take some profit.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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