- The US dollar initially did try to rally a bit during the earlier part of the session on Wednesday but then fell significantly as we could not hang above the 200 day EMA for very long. We fell pretty significantly, but we are starting to see the US dollar find some value hunting.
- I think at this point in time, it's likely that the US dollar will continue to see some interest. And it's noteworthy that the US dollar has picked up a bit of the strength against multiple currencies.
- The Japanese yen was a big winner for a while, but really at this point in time, it looks like it's going to give up quite a bit of those gains against not only the US dollar, but other currencies that I am watching. With that being the case, I think that we stay in the same consolidation range that we have been in with the 146 yen level underneath current pricing offering significant support and the 149 yen level above offering significant resistance.
Non-Farm Payroll Not Coming Out.
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Keep in mind that the non-farm payroll announcement is due to come out on Friday, but it looks like the government's going to shut down. So, we won't actually get those numbers. I am not really sure what that does to the markets other than cause more confusion. So that's another reason why I think we just simply go back and forth here. I don't think that there is a lot of clarity and just defaulting to the norm over the last couple of months makes a certain amount of sense. The 200 day EMA I think is a bit of a magnet for price, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing turn around and bounce back to the top of the overall consolidation range, opening up the possibility of going to be at least 149 yen. Remember, you do get paid to hang on to this, so I like being long anyways.
Potential signal: I am a buying here. I will put a stop loss at 146 yen, and target 148.25 yen.
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