The NZD/USD is trading near the 0.57725 ratio as of this writing with fast fluctuations being displayed as financial institutions deal with their perhaps overly ambitious perspectives seen the past couple of days.
The NZD/USD has seen price velocity over the past handful of days, and lows produced late last week certainly saw a reversal higher this Monday. Whether the lows sparked buying early this week based on the notion the NZD/USD had finally hit blatantly oversold territory in the eyes of financial institutions, or if the buying of the NZD/USD was caused by a perspective the U.S Federal Reserve was going to cut interest rates can be debated.
However, as the NZD/USD currently trades near the 0.57725 ratio it certainly can be argued the results seen the past couple of days leading into this morning were influenced by both scenarios. The NZD/USD was touching 0.57380 vicinity late last week and then saw a flurry of action on Monday when the currency pair touched the 0.57800 region upon its opening. Current price activity it must be said is straddling values seen late in the day this past Monday.
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Anticipated Move by Fed Turns Into Disappointment
Yesterday’s move higher in the NZD/USD to the 0.58025 area briefly then turned into strong selling as the U.S Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 25 basis points. Yes, the rate hike should have helped the value of the NZD/USD actually move upwards, and this was clearly bet on before the Fed’s anticipated cut was announced. But that wasn’t what financial institutions were speculating on, they were expecting a more dovish sounding Federal Reserve – they did not get this. Instead the Fed said the outlook for a December rate cut is uncertain. The rate cut had already been traded into the NZD/USD before the Fed’s announcement yesterday.
The NZD/USD was not able to sustain higher ground and quickly sold off. The NZD/USD is correlating to the broad Forex market as other major currencies also are doing worse against the USD early today. While the Fed may actually cut interest rates in December, the U.S central bank certainly did not want to commit to that action yesterday. The U.S government shutdown is still if effect, this means economic data remains hard to investigate via official statistics.
Fed Uncertainly and Cautious Trading Conditions
The Fed preached uncertainty once again and this hurt the NZD/USD bulls who were hoping for more optimism. The NZD/USD now finds itself traversing a price that is known to financial institutions and can be interpreted in a myriad of ways by technical traders depending on their perspectives.
- Optimists may look at the NZD/USD as still being below values where it is supposed to be.
- Others may look at the currency pair and simply acknowledge it is back within known terrain which has proven choppy the past two months with an incremental downturn being the overriding force.
- While looking for higher terrain in the NZD/USD may feel correct, traders are recommended to stay cautious in the near-term.
- Financial institutions may prove to be unhappy with the U.S Fed’s lack of clarity yesterday the remainder of the week.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.57765
Current Support: 0.57690
High Target: 0.57880
Low Target: 0.57510
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