- We've been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the euro in general, because we have been trying everything we can to break out to the upside, but we just can't seem to do it.
- That being said, I also look at this as a market that continues to look at the 50 day EMA as a potential floor in the market right along with an uptrend line underneath there.
The rally that we have seen over the last four days has failed. Typically, it'll happen in Asia, maybe drift into Europe a little bit. By the time the Americans get back on, the euro has been selling off.
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Noise Above?
The 1.18 level above is significant resistance, and I think we need to watch that very closely. If we can get above there on a daily close, then the market could go to the 1.19 level, possibly even the 1.20 level. If we break down below that uptrend line, underneath that offer support, it opens up 1.16 as a potential target. If we break down below there, then the 1.14 level could very well be the next target. Ultimately, if we really start to break down at this point, I think you'll see the US dollar shrink in against everything, not just the euro. It is worth noting that the absolute peak of the euro on this run has been during the FOMC meeting and press conference, and we've pretty much struggled since then. So, what that tells me is that the market is telling you something different than the narrative of the US dollar falling apart. I'm watching this trend line very closely because we break down below there, things could get interesting to the downside.
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